Naw, I don’t have an invite- yet, but, the beginnings of IPTV are here. Give it a few years, and the idea of cable or broadcast will be toast.
Joost™ - What’s Joost?
Joost is a new way of watching TV on the internet. With Joost, you get all the things you love about TV, including a high-quality full-screen picture, hundreds of full-length shows and easy channel-flipping.
The site isn’t that informative- and it doesn’t look like they have major programming on tap- but, as always with the Internet- being early never hurts, and looking for a buyout can be oh-so-sweet.
As the automobile became the primary transportation method for the nation, the buggy whip inventors created their best offerings. Too little, too late- and other than for collectors of buggy whips- totally valueless.
That’s our analogy for commercial ratings.
Nielsen has been ruling the roost with abstract data for decades- taking a percentage of the total viewers and making an educated, statistically based guess on how many viewers are watching a program. While this worked well with only 3 networks, in the days of cable tv, satellite tv, vcr’s and dvr’s it became less relevant- but the system was so well dug in, and the alternatives so few- that the advertising industry stuck with it.
With broadband sneaking into more homes, with DVR’s doing the same thing- and with Internet use skyrocketing- and the advent of Internet Protocol TV (IPTV) with products like AppleTV, we are seeing the last days for Nielsen- and no real use for rating TV spots.
Here is why: Advertising is expensive- and therefore, advertisers aren’t interested in reaching people via “broadcasting” anymore. Broadcast reaches “broad audiences” including those who aren’t eligible to buy your product. The web, IPTV, and hard-drive enabled TV systems (cable and satellite) are able to deliver content that is targeted and able to generate hard data back. The ultimate one-to-one marketing, where if an ad dollar is wasted- it will only be wasted one time. This is the future, and with the ad industry being a multi-billion dollar business, it won’t be long before marketers demand accountability more exact than if someone saw the commercial- as offered by Nielsen- or even if they liked the commercial- they want to know if you are a real business prospect- and what it would take to make you one.
Nielsen to Offer Commercial Ratings
NEW YORK Nielsen will begin supplying national commercial ratings starting in the fall, the company confirmed today.
If the networks and advertisers can agree on a standard, the commercial ratings could be used as currency to buy and sell ads by as early as the start of the 2007-08 TV season.
But for now, program ratings will continue to be the currency for ad transactions.
A Nielsen representative said it received requests from all five major broadcast networks (ABC, CBS, CW, NBC and Fox) for commercial ratings based on live viewership plus seven days of recorded DVR playback viewing. Nielsen will begin delivering that data “sometime this fall,” the rep said. That will give the industry about a year to analyze the data before deciding whether or not to use it as currency in the following season.
The commercial ratings will provide the average audience for all paid national ads airing during each program transmitted by national broadcast and cable networks, the Nielsen rep said.
While the trade press, the buyers, and the networks talk about this “next big thing” they are just fiddling while Rome burns. The entire system of delivering advertising messages will be more like YouTube and GoogleVideo- with meta-tags driving ad choices with a rebate per-click to the viewer (that’s right- you will get paid for watching and interacting with advertising in the future) or similar to Amazon‘s suggestions with a profile built from information you have volunteered.
Soon content producers will take their programming direct, via online hubs like the iTunes store or Amazon- getting paid directly from the consumer for their content. Discounting your media bill will be accomplished by your willingness to watch targeted TV spots- that help build your profile.
If you accept more commercials than your media bill- the proceeds go to the media producers- not to the intermediaries. This levels the playing field- and allows capitalism to do its thing- the way it was meant to.
There are two articles in Ad Age- talking about “engagement” and how “YouTube isn’t getting it done” which are still based on the idea that TV is driven through the old school “Network as middle-man” model. Once you realize that the new middle man will be the one who delivers 2-way feedback and links to your product- you realize how stupid this whole commercial rating discussion is.
If Proctor and Gamble took their “Soap Operas” offline- and onto their site- and charged $1 per show for an enhanced program- with 2 way connections with the characters- and then offered the content for free- if you answered some questions about Pringles, Tide or Gillette- don’t you think they would find that infinitely more useful than a rating of the viewership during their commercial?
Commercial ratings- the best buggy whip for last centuries marketers. Get used to it.
If you have questions about how to navigate this new media landscape feel free to contact us. Surf at the next wave dot biz.
Note: in today’s Ad Age, an article called “Revenge of the nerds” talks about this very subject- it seems Backchannel media has the right idea- except the part about the delivery system still including the networks.
Mr. Kokernak’s vision is to implement long-sought dreams of fully interactive, individually addressable and accountable TV. Backchannel wants to become the software and technology backbone of a new era dawning in TV as it transitions from analog to digital broadcasting — one Mr. Kokernak likens to the broadband tipping point that ushered in the age of YouTube.
In this era, ads are served to people according to the blocks or households where they live. They respond to TV ads with a simple remote click on an icon to, say, get more information about a car they just saw advertised, buy a song they just heard on the Grammys or the book Oprah just touted, or reserve a table at a nearby restaurant. In this era, based on real-time analysis of who’s clicking on what offers and programs, media plans change continuously.
TV, like the internet, but better?
In Backchannel’s vision, TV is a direct medium a la the internet, only, as Mr. Kokernak sees it, much better — without click fraud, phishing scams and other security threats. It’s enough, he believes, to shift much of the money that’s been going into search and other direct media back into TV, replace eyeball counts with the harder currency of response, and ultimately eliminate most upfront deals as dollars gravitate daily in a continuous-improvement cycle toward programming proven to generate response.
Sounds like a pay for performance plan doesn’t it?
Everyone knows the 80/20 rule, in fact an extension of this idea has become known as “the Long Tail.” However, the 80/40 rule might become the most important rule to marketers in the age of search engines and advertising effectiveness.
First- a reminder of what the 80/20 rule is:
Pareto’s Principle - The 80-20 Rule
n 1906, Italian economist Vilfredo Pareto created a mathematical formula to describe the unequal distribution of wealth in his country, observing that twenty percent of the people owned eighty percent of the wealth. In the late 1940s, Dr. Joseph M. Juran inaccurately attributed the 80/20 Rule to Pareto, calling it Pareto’s Principle. While it may be misnamed, Pareto’s Principle or Pareto’s Law as it is sometimes called, can be a very effective tool to help you manage effectively. Where It Came From
After Pareto made his observation and created his formula, many others observed similar phenomena in their own areas of expertise. Quality Management pioneer, Dr. Joseph Juran, working in the US in the 1930s and 40s recognized a universal principle he called the “vital few and trivial many” and reduced it to writing.
In an early work, a lack of precision on Juran’s part made it appear that he was applying Pareto’s observations about economics to a broader body of work. The name Pareto’s Principle stuck, probably because it sounded better than Juran’s Principle.
As a result, Dr. Juran’s observation of the “vital few and trivial many”, the principle that 20 percent of something always are responsible for 80 percent of the results, became known as Pareto’s Principle or the 80/20 Rule.
Traditional media based advertising has a major flaw: all ads are temporary. The ad in todays paper is in tomorrows trash, the spot in the TV show is over and gone (or skipped by Tivo- or ignored the second time it’s viewed) and most importantly- the old John Wanamaker adage about half his ad budget being wasted- only he didn’t know which half- still, even in todays hyper-targeted media, is pretty close to true. I’ve seen many ads for feminine hygiene products- but will never need them.
The difference between spending your budget on old-school media campaigns and putting your best efforts into online strategy- is that only people interested in your product or service will be interacting with your site- and they are there actively looking for information to substantiate their buying decision.
This is where the 80/40™- rule comes into play- insight directly from The Next Wave: 80% of Internet usage begins in search, 40% of people using search- type your URL into a search, instead of a direct access to your site- and get search results- which could include people talking about your business negatively- or trying to steal your eyeballs- even after you have spent millions of dollars promoting your URL.
Once they get to your site- what do they get? If your site is in Flash, often times they get frustrated. Also- remember, since 80% of use begins in search- are they able to access the specific information they seek? Or just get to your site? Many Flash sites do not allow your visitors to link to interior content with an exclusive URL.
One of the new realities in advertising and marketing is that people are depending on the Internet more for researching purchases- even having access when mobile to the web through WAP enabled sites- or soon- to any site with the introduction of the Apple iPhone. Everything is changing rapidly- and if you don’t make your information search friendly- you won’t be relevant in the decision making process.
How do you solve the 80/40 rule™? Building sites to be search friendly is just the start. Also, remember, it’s not about chest-beating ego sites- it’s about delivering information to the consumer that answers their problem (and the consumer can be a B-to-B customer just as easily as a B-to-C consumer). Your site should be searchable as well. Make every piece of relevant data available- in a web friendly form- and don’t remove material- always update it with relevant news (since links shouldn’t be broken by your maintenance).
But most importantly- always be aware- that when someone is looking for you- 40% of the time, they may get search results instead of directly to your site and someone else may have the answer and steal your lunch- and that is a much bigger problem than the old 80/20 rule.
I’m totally convinced that within 5 years, the only people selling targeted ads in video will be Google. The networks (broadcast and cable) will be toast. Content producers will be uploading their content to Google Video- where we will go to download our programs. Some will be free, others will cost, and if you can’t afford to buy the program at full price, you’ll be able to opt in to sell your eyeballs to some marketer who wants to reach you.
So, when Google wants to know it’s future, they call on Seth Godin- and this 48 minute video shows you why Seth Godin is one of the go-to guys for the future of marketing and advertising.
When I have some more time, I’ll pull out the juicy parts- but for now- I’ve pointed you in the right direction.
Serious 24 fans watch it live, TiVo it, or even use an old fashioned VCR- but they don’t miss the season premier. But, they also go out and buy the entire season on DVD and watch it straight through- and some collect it. Typically, the DVD doesn’t come out until after the season is over- not anymore. Starting tomorrow, you can buy the first 4 hours (premiered last night and tonight) on a DVD. No waiting till the season is over. Have it now. More than likely, after each 4 hours they will sell another DVD, and instead of getting $45 for the entire season in one box, you’ll pay more for the single packages.
Well, some Fox exec is probably thinking how smart am I- when in fact, they are missing the whole point: Bits not atoms. This was the seminal idea presented by Nicholas Negroponte in his 1996 book, Being Digital where he suggests that things that are made digitally (movies, books, newspapers etc) do better to stay in a digital format instead of being converted into atoms. This is what the iTunes store is all about, and what the future of television is- IPTV, on demand TV delivered by Internet Protocol, not, by creating disks with packaging, distribution costs etc.
Granted, television networks still haven’t got a clue what to do about TiVo yet- or the opportunities to build communities around their programming (except ESPN which understands the sportsfan better than anyone). The idea is to embrace your viewers- and make it easy for them to become a “market” with user profiles for direct delivery of targeted advertising- instead of the shotgun approach we now use.
The idea of the Sprint tie in to 24 is just another way to alienate some of your market. Is there anyone who really believes that fans will walk out of their Cingular or Verizon contract in order to move to Sprint to watch a webisode or get additional info? All this is doing is ticking off your most rabid fans that love 24, but don’t love Sprint.
Accept it: the customer is in control. It is your job to remove barriers and make them jump through as few hoops as possible to get access to their favorite shows. No big stupid Flash intros like they had on Rockstar Supernova, no sites that require proprietary browsers or specific hardware, you must work to make your content accessible to the widest possible audience, and let them feel like they aren’t being sold to- but embraced and part of something special- as you deliver the marketers message quietly through the screen.
Sell your stock in ABC, CBS, NBC and FOX, say goodbye to the cable companies, and look at Apple, Cingular, Yahoo and Google. Kiss phone books goodbye as well. Credit cards may go away too. The iPhone is coming this June, and it will change the world.
Already, Research in Motion (the Blackberry people), Palm, Motorola and other “Smart Phone” makers stock dropped, and deservedly so. My Treo 700 is a pain in the butt to use and it’s one of the “better smart phones.”
Steve Jobs has 30 years experience in changing the way people and computers interact and with yesterday’s introduction of the iPhone, he showed why Apple is the master of the GUI (Graphical User Interface). First came the mouse, then the click wheel and now- the scrolling gesture and MultiTouch interface (most touch screens can only read one point at a time). All, in all, it’s brilliant. A phone, iPod and Internet device- but, watch out, it may be way more than that.
When the video iPod was introduced, it wasn’t that the iPod could play video that was the groundbreaking news- it was that Apple was selling “free” TV programs for $1.99. The beginning of a la carte programming delivered over IP. Now, with the iPhone and the new Apple TV set top box, we have the “Remote” that pulls everything together, including a billing system (Cingular) and a whole new way for advertisers to reach highly targeted consumers. Just think, your cell phone bill could be subsidized for you agreeing to watch highly targeted content- based on several different criteria to begin with:
Your geographic location- cell phones are mini GPS devices, and as Jobs demonstrated the iPhone integration with Google maps/Google local, he showed us the beginning of a brand new way to access advertising, custom crafted to your longitude and latitude.
Your buying habits and payment processing might be handled through Google wallet, with you keeping your running account balance on your phone. Phones have been used in Japan to pay vending machines for years, the iPhone brings whole new levels of integration to your pocket.
The end of “Sales” for bricks and mortar stores- if your price doesn’t match what comes up in Froogle, you won’t make the sale. The “true browser” with easy input, coupled with a camera that can probably read product bar codes will put so much power in the consumers hand that all retailers will be able to compete on is better service or immediate delivery. Will that be worth paying a premium? Take a look at what the iTunes store has done to the music industry if you need hints.
With its superior interface and WiFi/phone system Internet access, the iPhone will allow users to access company websites on it’s small screen. Jobs didn’t show any Flash sites in the demo, but, by partnering with Yahoo and Google- and showcasing the New York Times- he did hint at the importance of CSS coded HTML which scales, and reformats to different screens easier than Flash. If you have a website that is in Flash come June, you will be missing many of the opportunities of true Mobile connectivity.
Last but not least, with a real browser- and an 8 gig drive, consumers will be able to carry your ads, your product literature- right to the point of sale- or discuss your products or service over lunch with friends- complete with sound, motion and data. No more need for brochures- even PDF’s online that don’t easily fit the new screen won’t be as handy a well-designed web interface. Think of having infomercials on your site that entertain and allow 2-way feedback- as well as click to buy options- all accessible from anywhere- anytime, in your customer’s pocket.
There is much more to this iPhone than an iPod, Phone, Internet connectivity- there is the first step of the true 1 to 1 revolution.
Apple stock went up 8 points yesterday. Just wait until June and the full power of this new phone is realized- by developers and marketers.
If the phone works as promised, and the reviews are good, Apple’s stock will climb like Googles- and the web will be a whole new place for marketers to (re) learn.
