TiVo still doesn't get it.

I own a TiVo- and I’ve used a Time Warner DVR- and that was all it took-instant understanding of why the TiVo experience is better- but, a Pepsi Challenge type campaign isn’t enough to change TiVo’s fortunes- TiVo has to do a lot more to gain market share- and the new ad campaign from Kaplan Thaler Group isn’t the answer.

From an article in the New York Times- TiVo is going to spend $15 million to try to change their fortune- and, unfortunately, they aren’t going to get it right (more on that following the excerpt)…

Avoiding Ads With TiVo? TiVo Strikes Back - New York Times
But how do you make a TiVo-proof commercial for TiVo? Executives at TiVo hope the answer is to hire an agency known for broad humor, talking animals and chirpy jingles, then approve a campaign centered on a silly (though eye-catching) visual device, meant to symbolize how much TiVo differs from generic DVRs.

The campaign, now under way, carries the theme “My TiVo gets me.” The effort, created by the Kaplan Thaler Group in New York, includes commercials on television and radio and in movie theaters, a pair of Web sites at whogetsme.com and mytivogetsme.com, (Next Wave: note- both link to the same site- and it’s all FLASH) contests, blog postings and promotional events in large markets like Boston, New York and San Francisco.

The device at the heart of the campaign is to bring to life the antenna atop the head of the “TiVo man,” the character shaped like a TV set that has personified the brand. The ads feature TiVo customers who sport antennas on their heads, which — thanks to the Stan Winston visual effects studio — seem as much a part of them as the remote controls they use to navigate the entertainment superhighway.

The campaign, with a budget estimated at more than $15 million, arrives as TiVo recorders and other DVRs loom larger than ever on the advertising landscape. Nielsen Media Research estimates that 17.2 percent of American households own DVRs and, according to an analysis by MediaPost Communications, penetration in television markets across the country ranges from 5.7 percent in Marquette, Mich., to 26.5 percent in Dallas-Fort Worth.

The proliferation of DVRs means that viewers are increasingly watching TV programs on a delayed basis rather than live. That in turn is leading Nielsen to rework its longtime methods for measuring viewership to count people who play back a program within one, three or seven days after it ran.

And because so many DVR owners fast-forward through spots rather than watch them, Nielsen plans to start providing by the end of May ratings for commercials in addition to its traditional program ratings. (TiVo has started supplying its own data to advertising agencies, showing second-by-second viewing patterns among its subscribers.)

TiVo, as the brand of DVR that has become synonymous with the category, is benefiting from the growing popularity of digital recording in the same way that brands like Band-Aid, Coke, Kleenex, Post-it, Q-tips and Xerox took advantage of similar synonym status in their markets.

But TiVo’s gains in subscribers have slowed significantly as more operators of cable TV systems sell their own — usually unbranded — DVR services.

As of Jan. 31, TiVo reported 4.4 million subscribers, 1.73 million who owned TiVo brand recorders and 2.7 million who had TiVo service through their DirecTV satellite service. The total was only 1.8 percent higher than the 4.36 million subscribers that TiVo had on the same day in 2006.

By contrast, subscriptions grew 130.8 percent from 2004 to 2005, and grew 45.3 percent from 2005 to 2006. (Subscribers who own TiVos pay $19.95 a month for one-year subscriptions, or $8.31 a month if they subscribe for three years.)

“We have spent the better part of the last year coming up with a list of significant differentiated features,” said Thomas S. Rogers, president and chief executive at TiVo in Alviso, Calif.

“This is a way to reintroduce TiVo the brand” in a way that will persuade consumers “to say: ‘I’m not interested in the generic DVR. I want the TiVo experience,’ ” he added.

Among the TiVo features described in the campaign are movie downloads through a partnership with Amazon.com, KidZone parental controls, the ability to share video clips with other TiVo subscribers and the ability of TiVo to “learn” which shows subscribers want

So-  how should TiVo solve their problems?

Well, first, hire an agency that really understands new media- back in November I went to a diversity trade fair and KTG was there- they had 52 pages indexed in Google- we had  260. Today those numbers are: KTG 47 and 447 for The Next Wave. To still have the idea that large geographical markets are the answer is missing the point of the Long Tail.

TiVo has experimented with funny ads before- to disastrous results. There was one about jock itch with Joe Montana and Ronnie Lott on the golf course. They’ve also been through a ton of agencies- including some of the best. Here is an example of early work attributed to Goodby Silverstein - a truly great ad agency:

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=HZl2Y5wX_zk
And the sad thing is- this spot still works- no need to run new, different- or more entertaining ads- the problem comes down to a few things:

  • TiVo really should be partnered with Apple computer. The combination of the Apple brand which stands for ease of use- with TiVo which is the leader in ease of use would be magical. It would also be the right combination for recording and downloading- something Apple TV is sorely missing.
  • The market for TiVo is the early adopters- opinion leaders. TiVo blew it with their late intro of a HD TiVo- and then insulted it’s user base by charging exorbitant prices. It should be an advantage to be a current loyal customer- not a reason to be taken advantage of. I’ve almost switched to Time Warner just to get a HD box without having to take out a second mortgage.
  • TiVo’s true value hasn’t really been tapped- one of IPTV style direct delivery of targeted ads. Because they haven’t been able to get critical mass- and haven’t worked their customer relationships well enough- they may have missed this boat as well. A partnership with Nielsen to supply a TiVo to every metered home on a trial basis would have done more for better numbers- and sampling- than any campaign ever would.

TiVo hasn’t got a chance of surviving solo at this point. When they lost their partnership with DirectTV- and failed to work with the cable companies- they sealed their fate. TiVo can offer all kinds of new services- but, the reality is- they are a one trick pony- without a chance of winning the IPTV race- unless they partner with the calvary- be it Apple, Amazon, Nielsen, Cable companies, Telcos, or someone with the horses to get market penetration by taking the box as a loss leader- and the subscription fees as well - and focus on the community building relationship that TiVo has the sole rights to own in the DVR/IPTV competition.

Remember- it’s never about the technology, it’s about the content and the community- and that’s what TiVo should be placing all their effort behind.

I'm juiced for Joost™

Naw, I don’t have an invite- yet, but, the beginnings of IPTV are here. Give it a few years, and the idea of cable or broadcast will be toast.

Joost™ - What’s Joost?
Joost is a new way of watching TV on the internet. With Joost, you get all the things you love about TV, including a high-quality full-screen picture, hundreds of full-length shows and easy channel-flipping.

The site isn’t that informative- and it doesn’t look like they have major programming on tap- but, as always with the Internet- being early never hurts, and looking for a buyout can be oh-so-sweet.

Something to keep an eye on- says The Next Wave.

How customers research

Found this in the April 2, 2007 Ad Age:

More than three-fourths of consumers research products online before they buy, and they’re twice as likely to so on a retailer’s site as on a manufacturer’s site.

Do you want to know why? How about the fact that retailers build sites that are search-engine optimized, follow W3C standards and actually watch their stats- to examine how to improve their site- because a better site means more sales. There is a direct relationship from functionality to profitability. Many manufacturers sites don’t make this connection- or do everything they can to make things more complex than they need to be.

A few tips: Never move a URL- if you have a page for your product- the XYZ Widget- always have the same url. Add to it, update it- but don’t change the url. Make sure you have links to the owners manual, instructions, warranty info, a forum to discuss the product, tips on using it- etc.

Allow consumers to say good or bad things about it- if good- say thanks, if bad- try to make them happy. If they aren’t doing it on your site- they will do it somewhere else- and may not find out you have a simple fix or update for your product. Link to as many reviews as possible- making your site the hub (and first in Google) for your product. Make sure consumers can access all commercials, print brochures, spec sheets right from this page. Have S/N, date of production info available as well. Make sure you have high rez photos available so they can put your product on the report to their boss- with why they should buy it- and look good.

These are only a few of the tips for the new way customers research making buying decisions. If you are interested in more- feel free to contact us for a full site analysis.

Is Crispin Porter + Bogusky the only “creative” ad agency left

The next person who says branding doesn’t count in business to business advertising should be shot. (Not that there are many nay-sayers when it comes to branding- but there are a few).

There are thousands of ad agencies in this country- and all of them would love to be able to take a stab at work for the premier consumer brands- like Nike, Apple, Burger King, Dominos, BMW, Ford etc…

But, when it comes to choosing an ad agency- Chief Marketing Officers seem to have tunnel vision. The list usually looks like this:

Crispin Porter + Bogusky, Wieden + Kennedy, TBWA Chiat/Day, Fallon, Arnold, Martin, Deutch, Goodby + Silverstein, GSD&M - you get the point. Maybe 50 agencies make the list- the rest, fight for the scraps.

Considering it can take at least a year before an agency can (or should) be comfortable enough to take a client in a new category (ad people don’t know everything there is to know about the shoe business- unless they’ve worked in it before) to a new place, with an on target strategy, changes like the following one, make me wonder:

Advertising Age - Nike Moves Running-Shoe Account to Crispin
Nike has officially transferred the creative work for its running-shoe business, as well as the Nike Plus and its Nike ID Web site accounts, to Miami-based Crispin Porter & Bogusky, a Nike spokesman said.
Nike’s running-shoe business was the first account expected to move from Wieden.
‘Proven track record’
“Crispin Porter & Bogusky has a proven track record for delivering creative, breakthrough ideas and we are excited to begin working with them to support these areas of business,” said Dean Stoyer, Nike’s U.S. director of media relations.
Mr. Stoyer said Nike will “continue working with our longtime creative partner Wieden & Kennedy to support the majority of our Nike business.”
Nike has been talking with Crispin for several months, and finally confirmed last month that it planned on moving pieces of its business to agencies other than Portland, Ore.-based Wieden. The running-shoe business was the first account expected to move.

While Crispin Porter + Bogusky is great at making noise, they have yet to take a brand the full course from a nobody like Nike was when Wieden + Kennedy started with them- to the power house they are now.

To abandon the date that brought you is a mistake of major proportions for Nike. If Wieden could afford it- telling Nike to take a walk on the whole shooting match would be the right move. Kudo’s to Roy Spence for rejecting WalMart’s invite to rebid the account after the Draft debacle. Loyalty and longevity in a client/agency relationship are valuable business assets, a part of the “goodwill” number on a balance sheet that shouldn’t be ignored.

The thing that baffles me is that both W+K can have the pick of ad talent (hiring)- if anything has stopped Nike from getting the work they think they are going to get from Crispin- it’s been on their side- not on the W+K side. However, if W+K had moved into a bunker mentality- worrying about losing the account (since it is a major part of their business) and the relationship changed from one of trust- to one of uncertainty, and stopped presenting the riskier, more volatile ideas because they thought that Nike wouldn’t be happy? Nike should look internally for their answer here- because from my perspective- they are trading down for an agency.

Commercial Ratings- The ultimate buggy whip

As the automobile became the primary transportation method for the nation, the buggy whip inventors created their best offerings. Too little, too late- and other than for collectors of buggy whips- totally valueless.

That’s our analogy for commercial ratings.

Nielsen has been ruling the roost with abstract data for decades- taking a percentage of the total viewers and making an educated, statistically based guess on how many viewers are watching a program. While this worked well with only 3 networks, in the days of cable tv, satellite tv, vcr’s and dvr’s it became less relevant- but the system was so well dug in, and the alternatives so few- that the advertising industry stuck with it.

With broadband sneaking into more homes, with DVR’s doing the same thing- and with Internet use skyrocketing- and the advent of Internet Protocol TV (IPTV) with products like AppleTV, we are seeing the last days for Nielsen- and no real use for rating TV spots.

Here is why: Advertising is expensive- and therefore, advertisers aren’t interested in reaching people via “broadcasting” anymore. Broadcast reaches “broad audiences” including those who aren’t eligible to buy your product. The web, IPTV, and hard-drive enabled TV systems (cable and satellite) are able to deliver content that is targeted and able to generate hard data back. The ultimate one-to-one marketing, where if an ad dollar is wasted- it will only be wasted one time. This is the future, and with the ad industry being a multi-billion dollar business, it won’t be long before marketers demand accountability more exact than if someone saw the commercial- as offered by Nielsen- or even if they liked the commercial- they want to know if you are a real business prospect- and what it would take to make you one.

Nielsen to Offer Commercial Ratings
NEW YORK Nielsen will begin supplying national commercial ratings starting in the fall, the company confirmed today.

If the networks and advertisers can agree on a standard, the commercial ratings could be used as currency to buy and sell ads by as early as the start of the 2007-08 TV season.

But for now, program ratings will continue to be the currency for ad transactions.

A Nielsen representative said it received requests from all five major broadcast networks (ABC, CBS, CW, NBC and Fox) for commercial ratings based on live viewership plus seven days of recorded DVR playback viewing. Nielsen will begin delivering that data “sometime this fall,” the rep said. That will give the industry about a year to analyze the data before deciding whether or not to use it as currency in the following season.

The commercial ratings will provide the average audience for all paid national ads airing during each program transmitted by national broadcast and cable networks, the Nielsen rep said.

While the trade press, the buyers, and the networks talk about this “next big thing” they are just fiddling while Rome burns. The entire system of delivering advertising messages will be more like YouTube and GoogleVideo- with meta-tags driving ad choices with a rebate per-click to the viewer (that’s right- you will get paid for watching and interacting with advertising in the future) or similar to Amazon‘s suggestions with a profile built from information you have volunteered.

Soon content producers will take their programming direct, via online hubs like the iTunes store or Amazon- getting paid directly from the consumer for their content. Discounting your media bill will be accomplished by your willingness to watch targeted TV spots- that help build your profile.

If you accept more commercials than your media bill- the proceeds go to the media producers- not to the intermediaries. This levels the playing field- and allows capitalism to do its thing- the way it was meant to.

There are two articles in Ad Age- talking about “engagement” and how “YouTube isn’t getting it done” which are still based on the idea that TV is driven through the old school “Network as middle-man” model. Once you realize that the new middle man will be the one who delivers 2-way feedback and links to your product- you realize how stupid this whole commercial rating discussion is.

If Proctor and Gamble took their “Soap Operas” offline- and onto their site- and charged $1 per show for an enhanced program- with 2 way connections with the characters- and then offered the content for free- if you answered some questions about Pringles, Tide or Gillette- don’t you think they would find that infinitely more useful than a rating of the viewership during their commercial?

Commercial ratings- the best buggy whip for last centuries marketers. Get used to it.

If you have questions about how to navigate this new media landscape feel free to contact us. Surf at the next wave dot biz.

Note: in today’s Ad Age, an article called “Revenge of the nerds” talks about this very subject- it seems Backchannel media has the right idea- except the part about the delivery system still including the networks.

Mr. Kokernak’s vision is to implement long-sought dreams of fully interactive, individually addressable and accountable TV. Backchannel wants to become the software and technology backbone of a new era dawning in TV as it transitions from analog to digital broadcasting — one Mr. Kokernak likens to the broadband tipping point that ushered in the age of YouTube.

In this era, ads are served to people according to the blocks or households where they live. They respond to TV ads with a simple remote click on an icon to, say, get more information about a car they just saw advertised, buy a song they just heard on the Grammys or the book Oprah just touted, or reserve a table at a nearby restaurant. In this era, based on real-time analysis of who’s clicking on what offers and programs, media plans change continuously.

TV, like the internet, but better?
In Backchannel’s vision, TV is a direct medium a la the internet, only, as Mr. Kokernak sees it, much better — without click fraud, phishing scams and other security threats. It’s enough, he believes, to shift much of the money that’s been going into search and other direct media back into TV, replace eyeball counts with the harder currency of response, and ultimately eliminate most upfront deals as dollars gravitate daily in a continuous-improvement cycle toward programming proven to generate response.

Sounds like a pay for performance plan doesn’t it?